Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (58% H2H, 31 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Larkin 52.7% (-4.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 41-39 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 58.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.4%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
41
-
39
(80 meetings)
41
39
Nelson
Larkin
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
18
15
Nelson
Larkin
33 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
13
18
Nelson
Larkin
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
6
Nelson
Larkin
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
51.7% (9,019)
-3.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
58.5% (2,125)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
50.2% (1,122)
-6.4%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
50.0% (5,845)
54.0% (6,238)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
51.3% (6,028)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
48.7%
52.7%
P2
48.5%
53.1%
P3
47.7%
52.1%
OT
45.6%
58.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 08:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 03:41 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 01:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:11 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 14:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 19:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |