Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Larkin 52.7% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 53.1%
46.9%
53.1%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Larkin
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
2
Nelson
Larkin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
52.4% (773)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
58.6% (220)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
47.3% (146)
-5.3%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (762).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
50.4% (472)
51.9% (615)
Away
48.6% (477)
54.2% (524)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
47.2%
52.3%
P2
53.4%
53.2%
P3
47.8%
52.6%
OT
50.0%
63.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Larkin
50.0%▬
50.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |