Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Larkin 52.4% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Nelson
Larkin
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Nelson
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.7% (878)
-1.0%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
58.5% (246)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
48.2% (166)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
52.3% (621)
52.4% (647)
Away
48.9% (618)
52.7% (643)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
48.4%
52.2%
P2
53.5%
53.1%
P3
50.3%
51.7%
OT
41.2%
61.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |