Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Larkin 54.1% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 54.8%
Defensive zone
Larkin 75.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 53.9%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 54.5%
45.5%
54.5%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Larkin
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
53.6% (886)
-6.7%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
59.3% (317)
-1.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
48.7% (152)
-23.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
48.9% (521)
56.6% (700)
Away
45.5% (516)
52.1% (655)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
45.9%
55.4%
P2
48.0%
54.7%
P3
48.0%
52.7%
OT
33.3%
59.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 12:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 2 | 03:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 1 | 05:22 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |