Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Larkin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Larkin 55.0% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 61.7%
Defensive zone
Larkin 71.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 62.3%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
55.9% (943)
-9.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
57.4% (244)
-22.9%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
46.2% (106)
-15.8%
On power play, Larkin has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (825).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
48.7% (419)
56.0% (654)
Away
41.3% (368)
54.8% (639)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
44.6%
54.4%
P2
47.3%
55.9%
P3
43.0%
55.2%
OT
100.0%
64.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:48 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |