Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (69% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Strome 51.6% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 25-18 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 82.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.3%
Neutral zone
Strome 58.1%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
Nelson
Strome
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
18
(43 meetings)
25
18
Nelson
Strome
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Strome
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
8
9
Nelson
Strome
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
5
Nelson
Strome
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
4
Nelson
Strome
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Strome
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.1% (6,337)
-2.2%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
58.4% (1,519)
-3.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
45.6% (68)
-1.8%
On power play, Strome has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Strome shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Strome is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,269).
Home / Away
Nelson
Strome
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.1% (3,968)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.2% (3,956)
By Period
Nelson
Strome
P1
48.7%
50.4%
P2
48.5%
52.1%
P3
47.7%
52.3%
OT
45.6%
52.8%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 13:57 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 17:11 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 03:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 19:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 02:53 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 00:05 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:09 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 04:48 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 18:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 11:28 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 07:55 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 01:33 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 3 | 16:10 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |