Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Dickinson 49.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 14-9 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.9%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 68.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 63.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.1%
62.1%
37.9%
Nelson
Dickinson
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
9
(23 meetings)
14
9
Nelson
Dickinson
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Dickinson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Dickinson
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
0
5
Nelson
Dickinson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
9
2
Nelson
Dickinson
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dickinson
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
51.5% (695)
-0.2%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
54.5% (11)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
42.4% (210)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dickinson shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Dickinson is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (635).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dickinson
Home
52.5% (590)
53.6% (489)
Away
51.7% (619)
44.7% (427)
By Period
Nelson
Dickinson
P1
50.5%
47.7%
P2
54.4%
52.1%
P3
51.4%
47.8%
OT
47.4%
83.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Dickinson
54.0%▬
54.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 06:39 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 19:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 19:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 00:47 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:38 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 19:40 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 17:12 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:58 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 19:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 18:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3 | 14:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |