Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Dickinson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Dickinson 49.6% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.9%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 62.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 56.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
Nelson
Dickinson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Nelson
Dickinson
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Dickinson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
1
Nelson
Dickinson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dickinson
1
5
Nelson
Dickinson
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Dickinson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dickinson
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.8% (643)
-1.1%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
66.7% (9)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
38.7% (150)
+4.7%
On power play, Dickinson has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dickinson shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Dickinson is 46.5% vs left-shot opponents (542).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dickinson
Home
52.3% (621)
48.7% (419)
Away
48.9% (618)
50.4% (383)
By Period
Nelson
Dickinson
P1
48.4%
42.6%
P2
53.5%
55.0%
P3
50.3%
50.0%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Dickinson
50.0%▲
47.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 09:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:34 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 2 | 18:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 19:35 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 06:13 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 1 | 16:59 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 16:02 | Offensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 15:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:16 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:56 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Defensive | Jason Dickinson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |