Brock Nelson vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.6% vs Pageau 58.8% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 59.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Nelson
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Nelson
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Nelson
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (694)
59.2% (502)
-9.2%
Power Play
56.3% (112)
69.6% (23)
-13.3%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (143)
61.3% (163)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Nelson is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Nelson shoots left. Pageau is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (502).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pageau
Home
50.4% (472)
59.5% (299)
Away
48.6% (477)
60.4% (389)
By Period
Nelson
Pageau
P1
47.2%
55.3%
P2
53.4%
62.2%
P3
47.8%
61.1%
OT
50.0%
80.0%
Final 5 min
47.6%
62.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
49.5%
Pageau
72.0%▲
62.5%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |