Brock Nelson vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Pageau 58.8% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 69.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 59.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Nelson
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Pageau
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Nelson
Pageau
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Nelson
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
59.1% (687)
-8.4%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
69.4% (36)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
60.1% (213)
-16.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pageau
Home
52.3% (621)
57.8% (377)
Away
48.9% (618)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Nelson
Pageau
P1
48.4%
54.1%
P2
53.5%
62.1%
P3
50.3%
61.8%
OT
41.2%
75.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |