Brock Nelson vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Pageau 54.8% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 20-18 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 72.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 57.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Nelson
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
20
(38 meetings)
18
20
Nelson
Pageau
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
7
Nelson
Pageau
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
11
Nelson
Pageau
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Pageau
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
55.7% (9,486)
-7.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
57.0% (1,002)
-2.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
49.6% (2,069)
-5.8%
On even strength, Pageau has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pageau
Home
50.0% (5,845)
56.3% (6,214)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
53.4% (6,343)
By Period
Nelson
Pageau
P1
48.7%
54.6%
P2
48.5%
56.3%
P3
47.7%
53.5%
OT
45.6%
54.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:44 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 18:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 17:34 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 19:59 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 10:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 08:57 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 15:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 08:40 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 16:08 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 03:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |