Brock Nelson vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2018-19 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Pageau 53.2% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 61.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 75.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 60.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Nelson
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Pageau
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Pageau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Pageau
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
54.9% (384)
-7.5%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
40.7% (27)
+10.8%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
52.9% (70)
-10.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Nelson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (425).
Nelson shoots left. Pageau is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Nelson
Pageau
Home
51.0% (641)
55.4% (222)
Away
44.1% (605)
52.5% (259)
By Period
Nelson
Pageau
P1
48.2%
55.3%
P2
48.1%
55.2%
P3
46.9%
51.1%
OT
42.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
53.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 16:08 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 03:40 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 7, 2019 | 1 | 03:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 5, 2019 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |