Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Tavares 54.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.0%
62.0%
38.0%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Tavares
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
3
Nelson
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Nelson
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
54.8% (861)
-4.1%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
57.5% (226)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
51.7% (29)
-3.4%
On even strength, Tavares has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (685).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
53.6% (603)
58.1% (559)
Away
49.9% (585)
52.4% (557)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
55.4%
57.6%
P2
47.2%
55.5%
P3
52.6%
52.0%
OT
51.6%
80.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 03:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 14:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 07:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 1 | 18:59 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 1 | 00:53 | Defensive | John Tavares |