Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Tavares 57.7% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 56.7%
Defensive zone
Tavares 51.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 53.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Nelson
Tavares
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Nelson
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
3
Nelson
Tavares
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
57.5% (914)
-10.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
60.5% (309)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
59.1% (22)
-34.1%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +34.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
48.9% (521)
61.0% (661)
Away
45.5% (516)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
45.9%
58.6%
P2
48.0%
57.8%
P3
48.0%
58.4%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:33 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 3 | 11:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 3 | 08:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 23, 2023 | 2 | 01:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 14:37 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 12:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:36 | Neutral | John Tavares |