Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Tavares 57.7% (-6.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 23-12 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
23
(35 meetings)
12
23
Nelson
Tavares
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
5
Nelson
Tavares
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
6
13
Nelson
Tavares
19 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
5
Nelson
Tavares
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
57.7% (998)
-6.4%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
60.5% (271)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
56.4% (39)
-4.5%
On even strength, Tavares has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
52.5% (590)
59.7% (610)
Away
51.7% (619)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
50.5%
57.2%
P2
54.4%
58.5%
P3
51.4%
59.4%
OT
47.4%
46.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2025 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 14:47 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 1 | 13:06 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:23 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 12:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:12 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 03:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 3 | 17:01 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:32 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 11:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 2 | 05:41 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 19:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2025 | 1 | 09:40 | Defensive | John Tavares |