Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Tavares 59.8% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 60.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.1%
60.1%
39.9%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Tavares
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
3
Nelson
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Nelson
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
60.9% (1,043)
-11.0%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
60.4% (278)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
47.6% (21)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 62.7% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
49.8% (458)
63.5% (684)
Away
49.0% (506)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
50.1%
60.3%
P2
45.4%
60.4%
P3
52.7%
60.1%
OT
33.3%
92.3%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 19:06 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 08:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:20 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 02:18 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 21, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |