Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Tavares 58.7% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 63.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 66.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 71.7%
28.3%
71.7%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Nelson
Tavares
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
5
Nelson
Tavares
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
59.2% (1,035)
-13.1%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
60.0% (310)
-25.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
42.9% (7)
-12.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
48.7% (419)
57.5% (668)
Away
41.3% (368)
61.1% (684)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
44.6%
58.0%
P2
47.3%
60.1%
P3
43.0%
61.0%
OT
100.0%
27.8%
Final 5 min
39.4%
60.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 17:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 15:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 3 | 01:59 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 5, 2024 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 12:24 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 19:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 07:04 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 1 | 09:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |