Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Tavares 57.2% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 85.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 78.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 80.6%
80.6%
19.4%
Nelson
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
14
(17 meetings)
3
14
Nelson
Tavares
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
7
Nelson
Tavares
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Tavares
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
4
Nelson
Tavares
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
58.0% (914)
-7.3%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
57.0% (235)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
57.9% (19)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Nelson
Tavares
Home
52.3% (621)
57.8% (614)
Away
48.9% (618)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Nelson
Tavares
P1
48.4%
58.0%
P2
53.5%
56.9%
P3
50.3%
58.4%
OT
41.2%
57.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 16:40 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:07 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 08:03 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 11:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 1 | 07:07 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 3 | 12:55 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 19:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 16:42 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |