Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dach shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Dach 41.9% (+9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 77.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Nelson
Dach
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Nelson
Dach
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Dach
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Dach
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dach
0
2
Nelson
Dach
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dach
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dach
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
38.5% (213)
+8.4%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
33.3% (9)
+24.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
40.0% (5)
-15.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +24.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dach shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Dach is 39.2% vs left-shot opponents (153).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dach
Home
48.9% (521)
38.8% (147)
Away
45.5% (516)
37.5% (80)
By Period
Nelson
Dach
P1
45.9%
36.3%
P2
48.0%
40.0%
P3
48.0%
40.0%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
27.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
38.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | OT | 00:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |