Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dach shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Dach 43.2% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dach 56.1%
Defensive zone
Dach 51.6%
Neutral zone
Dach 55.5%
Result
Kirby Dach favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Nelson
Dach
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Dach
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dach
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dach
0
2
Nelson
Dach
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dach
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
39.6% (217)
+11.7%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
47.6% (21)
+11.1%
On even strength, Nelson has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dach shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Dach is 36.5% vs left-shot opponents (181).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dach
Home
52.5% (590)
37.8% (127)
Away
51.7% (619)
43.2% (111)
By Period
Nelson
Dach
P1
50.5%
32.9%
P2
54.4%
36.3%
P3
51.4%
52.6%
Final 5 min
57.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |