Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dach shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Dach 37.3% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Dach leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Nelson
Dach
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Nelson
Dach
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Dach
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Dach
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Dach
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dach
1
2
Nelson
Dach
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dach
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
36.5% (1,423)
+11.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
35.7% (98)
+18.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
36.0% (25)
+7.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +18.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dach shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Dach is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dach
Home
50.0% (5,845)
37.0% (857)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
35.8% (689)
By Period
Nelson
Dach
P1
48.7%
35.3%
P2
48.5%
34.5%
P3
47.7%
40.4%
OT
45.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
39.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
36.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 17:55 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 01:25 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | OT | 00:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 12:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 17:59 | Defensive | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 15:45 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Oct 19, 2021 | 2 | 06:23 | Offensive | Kirby Dach |
| Dec 27, 2019 | 3 | 09:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |