Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.7%). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Rossi shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Rossi 45.3% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 52.8%
Defensive zone
Rossi 51.4%
Neutral zone
Rossi 53.1%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 52.0%
48.0%
52.0%
Nelson
Rossi
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nelson
Rossi
Last 6: Nelson 2-4 Rossi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
0
1
Nelson
Rossi
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Rossi
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
0
1
Nelson
Rossi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rossi
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
44.5% (701)
+1.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
56.1% (41)
-21.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
0.0% (7)
+30.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +30.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rossi shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Rossi is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rossi
Home
48.7% (419)
46.8% (385)
Away
41.3% (368)
42.6% (364)
By Period
Nelson
Rossi
P1
44.6%
42.8%
P2
47.3%
43.9%
P3
43.0%
47.4%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
37.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2024 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |