Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Rossi on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Rossi 47.1% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rossi 58.1%
Defensive zone
Rossi 63.7%
Neutral zone
Rossi 60.7%
Result
Marco Rossi favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Nelson
Rossi
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Rossi
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Rossi
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rossi
0
3
Nelson
Rossi
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Rossi
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rossi
0
1
Nelson
Rossi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Rossi
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
46.5% (879)
+4.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
48.6% (105)
+10.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
50.0% (8)
+1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rossi shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Rossi is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (645).
Home / Away
Nelson
Rossi
Home
52.5% (590)
47.5% (520)
Away
51.7% (619)
46.0% (472)
By Period
Nelson
Rossi
P1
50.5%
47.8%
P2
54.4%
44.2%
P3
51.4%
48.7%
OT
47.4%
45.5%
Final 5 min
57.3%
47.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Rossi
60.0%▲
51.5%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 17:33 | Defensive | Marco Rossi |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 11:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Marco Rossi |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |