Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Kastelic 54.5% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 85.8%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 56.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 68.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Nelson
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Kastelic
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
56.5% (115)
-6.6%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
100.0% (3)
-47.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
100.0% (2)
-71.4%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Kastelic is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kastelic
Home
49.8% (458)
54.8% (73)
Away
49.0% (506)
63.8% (47)
By Period
Nelson
Kastelic
P1
50.1%
50.0%
P2
45.4%
62.5%
P3
52.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 08:42 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |