Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Kastelic leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 93.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 75.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
Nelson
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Nelson
Kastelic
Last 10: Nelson 2-8 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
6
Nelson
Kastelic
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
1
2
Nelson
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
57.0% (1,613)
-9.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
80.0% (25)
-25.5%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
53.6% (274)
-9.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +25.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kastelic
Home
50.0% (5,845)
58.9% (895)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Nelson
Kastelic
P1
48.7%
58.5%
P2
48.5%
56.9%
P3
47.7%
55.3%
OT
45.6%
53.8%
Final 5 min
47.8%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:40 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:08 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:16 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 2 | 08:42 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Feb 1, 2022 | 1 | 14:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |