Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Kastelic 55.9% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 85.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 73.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Nelson
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
58.0% (476)
-11.1%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
75.0% (8)
-17.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
50.9% (106)
-25.9%
On penalty kill, Kastelic has a +25.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Kastelic is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (391).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kastelic
Home
48.9% (521)
64.9% (265)
Away
45.5% (516)
50.5% (325)
By Period
Nelson
Kastelic
P1
45.9%
58.5%
P2
48.0%
55.6%
P3
48.0%
56.8%
Final 5 min
45.3%
62.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2022 | 2 | 12:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 04:08 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |