Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Kastelic 53.5% (-9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 51.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.1%
Result
Mark Kastelic favored at 51.9%
48.1%
51.9%
Nelson
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
53.4% (337)
-7.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
100.0% (4)
-65.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
75.0% (8)
-44.6%
On power play, Kastelic has a +65.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Kastelic is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (246).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kastelic
Home
48.7% (419)
56.2% (162)
Away
41.3% (368)
52.9% (187)
By Period
Nelson
Kastelic
P1
44.6%
58.2%
P2
47.3%
58.8%
P3
43.0%
45.4%
Final 5 min
39.4%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |