Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Kastelic 53.4% (-2.3%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 79.1%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 69.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Nelson
Kastelic
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
55.4% (345)
-4.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.0% (4)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
35.3% (17)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Kastelic is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kastelic
Home
52.5% (590)
50.6% (162)
Away
51.7% (619)
57.4% (204)
By Period
Nelson
Kastelic
P1
50.5%
61.5%
P2
54.4%
52.8%
P3
51.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
46.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
54.4%