Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs McTavish 50.6% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 55.4%
Defensive zone
McTavish 55.6%
Neutral zone
McTavish 56.2%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Nelson
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nelson
McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
McTavish
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
1
Nelson
McTavish
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
3
Nelson
McTavish
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
51.1% (769)
+0.2%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.6% (178)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
28.6% (14)
+23.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
Home / Away
Nelson
McTavish
Home
52.5% (590)
52.3% (461)
Away
51.7% (619)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Nelson
McTavish
P1
50.5%
51.5%
P2
54.4%
54.0%
P3
51.4%
47.1%
OT
47.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
McTavish
48.0%▼
51.5%
50.7%