Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.6%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McTavish 48.7% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.6%
54.6%
45.4%
Nelson
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Nelson
McTavish
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
McTavish
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
McTavish
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
6
Nelson
McTavish
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.2% (2,788)
-0.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.6% (435)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
34.3% (35)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. McTavish is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,155).
Home / Away
Nelson
McTavish
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.8% (1,678)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.4% (1,580)
By Period
Nelson
McTavish
P1
48.7%
50.0%
P2
48.5%
47.8%
P3
47.7%
48.4%
OT
45.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |