Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Zibanejad 46.6% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 23-14 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 66.7%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 65.9%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 65.7%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 66.1%
33.9%
66.1%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
23
(37 meetings)
14
23
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
4
Nelson
Zibanejad
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
6
15
Nelson
Zibanejad
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
4
Nelson
Zibanejad
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
47.8% (667)
+0.7%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
51.4% (181)
+0.5%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
36.0% (186)
+21.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
55.0% (362)
48.4% (529)
Away
43.5% (345)
44.2% (505)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
49.3%
46.2%
P2
53.6%
47.7%
P3
46.0%
44.8%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
37.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 17:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 10:49 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 04:08 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 17:45 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 05:46 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 05:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 3 | 04:54 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:24 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 1 | 09:15 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 1 | 01:08 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 3 | 09:03 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 2 | 12:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 2 | 12:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 2 | 03:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 1 | 04:31 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 1 | 00:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |