Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Zibanejad 49.3% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 11-10 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 59.6%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 54.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
11
(21 meetings)
10
11
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
5
Nelson
Zibanejad
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Zibanejad
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
5
Nelson
Zibanejad
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
50.9% (913)
-4.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
59.0% (39)
-24.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
37.5% (160)
-7.1%
On power play, Zibanejad has a +24.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
48.7% (419)
51.1% (536)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.6% (576)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
44.6%
50.1%
P2
47.3%
47.3%
P3
43.0%
50.7%
OT
100.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:26 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 07:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:32 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 12:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 02:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 15:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 2 | 11:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |