Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Zibanejad 51.6% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.8%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 50.3%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
8
(15 meetings)
7
8
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Zibanejad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
1
3
Nelson
Zibanejad
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
3
4
Nelson
Zibanejad
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.4% (770)
-2.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
46.2% (39)
+12.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
44.7% (141)
-1.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
52.3% (621)
49.0% (429)
Away
48.9% (618)
54.1% (521)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
48.4%
53.0%
P2
53.5%
51.1%
P3
50.3%
51.0%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
51.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |