Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.0%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Zibanejad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Zibanejad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.9% (870)
-1.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
53.5% (43)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
46.2% (143)
+5.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
52.5% (590)
55.1% (501)
Away
51.7% (619)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
50.5%
57.5%
P2
54.4%
50.7%
P3
51.4%
47.9%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
52.1%
Zibanejad
46.0%▼
54.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |