Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on defensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 79 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 121-101 in 222 meetings
Offensive zone
Zibanejad 53.3%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 55.0%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 55.3%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Nelson
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
101
-
121
(222 meetings)
101
121
Nelson
Zibanejad
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
34
30
Nelson
Zibanejad
64 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
27
52
Nelson
Zibanejad
79 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
40
39
Nelson
Zibanejad
79 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
50.9% (11,719)
-3.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.2% (1,849)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.5% (1,790)
+2.3%
On even strength, Zibanejad has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (10,678).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zibanejad
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.6% (7,566)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.3% (7,793)
By Period
Nelson
Zibanejad
P1
48.7%
50.4%
P2
48.5%
49.7%
P3
47.7%
49.8%
OT
45.6%
48.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 15:30 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:42 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:46 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:05 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 2 | 16:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |