Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 92.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 79.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 79.5%
20.5%
79.5%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Nelson
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Nelson
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
55.2% (625)
-8.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
57.1% (7)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
38.2% (220)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
48.9% (521)
53.7% (445)
Away
45.5% (516)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
45.9%
48.8%
P2
48.0%
49.3%
P3
48.0%
54.0%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
45.3%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
47.3%
Dowd
48.0%▼
54.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2023 | 3 | 06:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 29, 2023 | 2 | 16:48 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 01:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |