Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Dowd 48.3% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 91.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 58.1%
41.9%
58.1%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Nelson
Dowd
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
6
Nelson
Dowd
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Nelson
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
49.2% (778)
-3.1%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
58.3% (12)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
44.0% (234)
-13.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
48.7% (419)
46.3% (492)
Away
41.3% (368)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
44.6%
49.1%
P2
47.3%
48.2%
P3
43.0%
46.9%
OT
100.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
39.4%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 11:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 03:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |