Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (96% H2H, 28 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 35-23 in 58 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
35
(58 meetings)
23
35
Nelson
Dowd
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
19
1
Nelson
Dowd
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
27
Nelson
Dowd
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
7
Nelson
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
52.4% (6,009)
-4.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
56.1% (164)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.1% (1,635)
-0.3%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
48.7%
51.7%
P2
48.5%
50.4%
P3
47.7%
50.3%
OT
45.6%
45.9%
Final 5 min
47.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 20, 2023 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 13:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 07:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 06:52 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 1 | 18:47 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |