Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Dowd 49.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 91.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 60.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nelson
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Nelson
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.2% (835)
-0.9%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
60.0% (10)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
44.0% (350)
+7.9%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
52.5% (590)
51.5% (619)
Away
51.7% (619)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
50.5%
51.7%
P2
54.4%
51.6%
P3
51.4%
47.0%
OT
47.4%
22.2%
Final 5 min
57.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 09:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |