Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 78.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Nelson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Dowd
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Nelson
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Nelson
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.7% (644)
-1.0%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
0.0% (2)
+58.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
41.6% (221)
+1.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +58.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dowd
Home
52.3% (621)
48.6% (451)
Away
48.9% (618)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Nelson
Dowd
P1
48.4%
49.1%
P2
53.5%
47.3%
P3
50.3%
51.4%
OT
41.2%
30.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 05:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 04:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |