Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.9%). Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 26-17 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 50.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 62.9%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Nelson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
26
(43 meetings)
17
26
Nelson
Bjugstad
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
5
8
Nelson
Bjugstad
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
6
7
Nelson
Bjugstad
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
6
11
Nelson
Bjugstad
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.6% (6,634)
-0.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
55.2% (829)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.3% (614)
-0.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
48.7%
49.0%
P2
48.5%
49.1%
P3
47.7%
48.4%
OT
45.6%
61.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 08:55 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2019 | OT | 02:09 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |