Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 65.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 72.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.4%
50.4%
49.6%
Nelson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Bjugstad
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Nelson
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
50.7% (906)
-4.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
48.1% (108)
-13.6%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
44.4% (239)
-14.0%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
48.7% (419)
49.8% (643)
Away
41.3% (368)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
44.6%
49.4%
P2
47.3%
50.5%
P3
43.0%
47.9%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:40 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 04:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 01:51 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 08:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 01:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |