Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+1.8%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.2%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 51.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Nelson
Bjugstad
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
48.9% (280)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
50.0% (6)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
47.2% (36)
-3.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
52.3% (621)
48.4% (190)
Away
48.9% (618)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
48.4%
41.7%
P2
53.5%
56.6%
P3
50.3%
48.7%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%