Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 47.8%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 80.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 79.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 51.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Nelson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Nelson
Bjugstad
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
3
Nelson
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.4% (867)
-2.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
56.0% (25)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
40.7% (216)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (796).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
48.9% (521)
46.5% (480)
Away
45.5% (516)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
45.9%
48.7%
P2
48.0%
45.6%
P3
48.0%
49.1%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2022 | 3 | 14:49 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 08:55 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 18:25 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 16, 2022 | 1 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 19:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |