Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 53.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.4%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Nelson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
46.7% (398)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
51.6% (31)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
62.5% (8)
-10.6%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
52.5% (590)
47.3% (220)
Away
51.7% (619)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
50.5%
46.1%
P2
54.4%
46.3%
P3
51.4%
50.4%
Final 5 min
57.3%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 07:51 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |