Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 39.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 43.7% vs Bjugstad 49.0% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Nelson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Bjugstad
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Nelson
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
2
Nelson
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
42.1% (385)
48.3% (937)
-6.2%
Power Play
47.5% (40)
56.1% (148)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (26)
34.2% (38)
+4.3%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 39.8% vs right-shot opponents (196).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (764).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
43.8% (224)
50.5% (574)
Away
41.0% (227)
47.2% (549)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
48.1%
52.4%
P2
38.4%
46.8%
P3
39.2%
45.5%
OT
75.0%
78.3%
Final 5 min
41.4%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
42.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 17:49 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Apr 1, 2014 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 18:24 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 3 | 11:28 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 2, 2014 | 1 | 06:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |