Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Bjugstad 44.9% (+12.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 55.3%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 51.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 52.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Nelson
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Bjugstad
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Nelson
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Bjugstad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
37.6% (85)
+13.1%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
75.0% (4)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
42.9% (7)
+5.4%
On power play, Bjugstad has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (66).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
53.6% (603)
32.1% (56)
Away
49.9% (585)
50.0% (40)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
55.4%
42.9%
P2
47.2%
40.0%
P3
52.6%
34.4%
OT
51.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
22.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
39.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2019 | OT | 02:09 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 08:48 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 3 | 01:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 09:26 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 7, 2019 | 2 | 06:28 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |