Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Schmaltz 48.4% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 65.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.4%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Nelson
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
2
Nelson
Schmaltz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Schmaltz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
42.9% (133)
+7.0%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
55.1% (89)
-2.3%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
47.1% (17)
-18.5%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Schmaltz is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schmaltz
Home
49.8% (458)
41.6% (125)
Away
49.0% (506)
54.4% (114)
By Period
Nelson
Schmaltz
P1
50.1%
40.0%
P2
45.4%
59.5%
P3
52.7%
45.0%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2021 | 3 | 11:29 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 2 | 10:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 23, 2021 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |