Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (85% H2H, 13 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 22-13 in 35 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 76.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 94.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 90.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 87.3%
87.3%
12.7%
Nelson
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
13
(35 meetings)
22
13
Nelson
Schmaltz
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Nelson
Schmaltz
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
2
Nelson
Schmaltz
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Nelson
Schmaltz
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
41.2% (3,399)
+6.7%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
47.1% (649)
+7.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
47.8% (134)
-4.0%
On power play, Nelson has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schmaltz
Home
50.0% (5,845)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Nelson
Schmaltz
P1
48.7%
41.1%
P2
48.5%
42.9%
P3
47.7%
43.0%
OT
45.6%
42.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:33 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |