Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Schmaltz 45.0% (+7.3%)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 56.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 67.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 54.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Nelson
Schmaltz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
37.7% (53)
+9.2%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
40.9% (44)
+16.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
66.7% (3)
-41.7%
On penalty kill, Schmaltz has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Schmaltz is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (77).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schmaltz
Home
48.9% (521)
34.7% (49)
Away
45.5% (516)
45.1% (51)
By Period
Nelson
Schmaltz
P1
45.9%
25.9%
P2
48.0%
46.2%
P3
48.0%
42.1%
OT
33.3%
46.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
34.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
40.0%