Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Schmaltz 42.8% (+4.2%)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 52.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.2%
50.2%
49.8%
Nelson
Schmaltz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
38.5% (309)
+7.6%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
53.2% (79)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
25.0% (12)
+5.4%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schmaltz
Home
48.7% (419)
38.0% (184)
Away
41.3% (368)
43.5% (216)
By Period
Nelson
Schmaltz
P1
44.6%
40.3%
P2
47.3%
39.9%
P3
43.0%
40.7%
OT
100.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%